As the final months of the year approach, the anticipation surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has generated considerable excitement among analysts and traders.
While many stake their hopes on these index funds to fuel a significant price surge for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Matrixport, a digital assets financial services platform, offers a distinct perspective. According to their latest report, Matrixport firmly believes that Bitcoin and crypto prices are destined to soar in 2024, irrespective of the SEC’s decision on ETF approval.
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Federal Reserve’s Rate Cuts As Catalyst?
One influential factor identified by Matrixport is the recent declaration of victory by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), in the institution’s fight against inflation.
Powell’s mention of possible rate cuts caught the attention of the digital asset platform, which noted in its report that Bitcoin prices jumped nearly 300% in 2019 when the Fed ended its hiking cycle and kept rates on hold for an extended period.
Matrixport draws parallels to the present scenario, where the Fed projects three cuts, equivalent to 75 basis points, in 2024.
Moreover, Matrixport’s analysis incorporates a proprietary inflation model presented a year ago, which projected a sharp decline in inflation from 8% to 3-4% by the end of 2023. This model instilled great confidence in the platform, suggesting that risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, would witness a substantial rally in 2023.
Potential Decrease In CPI Strengthens BTC’s Role As Inflation Hedge
Matrixport’s proprietary inflation model also indicates the possibility of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipping below 2% by the end of 2024. This prediction holds significant implications for Bitcoin’s price and its role as a potential hedge against inflation.
The CPI serves as a key measure of inflation, reflecting changes in the average prices of a basket of goods and services over time. A dip below 2% suggests a deceleration in the rate of price increases, potentially indicating a more subdued inflationary environment.
In such a scenario, investors might seek alternative assets such as BTC that can preserve their purchasing power and shield them from the erosion of value caused by inflation.
SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Decision Irrelevant?
Importantly, Matrixport emphasizes that even if the SEC maintains its disapproval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, higher crypto prices are still expected throughout the year.
Furthermore, the report highlights the substantial growth of assets in US money market funds, which have doubled since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching a staggering $6.1 trillion. This growth implies an additional $320 billion in interest rate payments per year, creating a potential influx of $370 billion annually or roughly $1 billion daily into risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Matrixport’s bullish outlook for 2024 also takes into account significant events on the horizon. The year marks a Bitcoin halving cycle, historically associated with substantial price increases averaging 192%.
Additionally, 2024 is an election year, and the possibility of former President Donald Trump being reelected is considered high. Matrixport suggests that his policies could potentially bolster the US economy, thereby driving up stock prices and cryptocurrencies.
As of this writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is currently trading at $42,600, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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